Look Back in Anger
Statheads take a lot of shit, and deservedly so. They produce reams and reams of data that show that if ballplayers do X, they will succeed Y% of the time more often. A lot of it is bullshit. Whether they're talking about bunts or stolen bases or first-pitch strikes or whatever, what is almost impossible to do is create a control environment against which you can test your theory.
Por ejemplo: you read a lot about how wasteful bunting is. Well the only way to truly measure how wasteful it is would be if the exact same set of variables (players, ballparks, etc...) were allowed to play both with and without bunting. Obviously this is impossible. If you take the bunt out of the equation it changes pitch selection, it allows the infielders to position theselves differently, it changes everything.
Another group of people who receive no shortage of scorn are people who believe in the utility of pitch counts. A ven diagram of the two groups would show a massive overlap. People like Dusty Baker, Bob Feller and Whitey Ford snarl with disgust at pitch counts. Of course Dusty has a rich history of pitchers on the DL, Bob Feller thinks Muhammed Ali is a traitor and Whitey Ford is quite possibly the most unpleasant man alive.
The number that you hear all the time in reference to El Diva is 105. That is the pitch count at which it has been determined that Petey starts to irrevocably implode. Now it’s not a binary switch, but it is a number to bear in mind as the game progresses.
On September 24th when El Diva took the hill in the 8th with a one-run lead and Matsui at the plate, a tsunami of déjà vu rolled across the Nation. We as a people had fallen through a wormhole 11 months back in time. Remember when Vader blew up Alderon and Obi Wan just knew, he heard the scream of millions suffering beyond belief at once? It was like that. You had to ask yourself, “Did Francona even watch the fucking playoffs last year?” (It turns out he didn’t, he said so the following day in the paper.) As day follows night, Matsui went yard on pitch number 101. Pitch 107 got roped to right for a double by Bernie. 115 was singled to center by Sierra, putting the Yankees ahead, 5-4.
Wednesday night Petey had thrown 91 pitches heading into the 6th. On pitch #97 Bernie flied out. #102 sent Posada to first on a five-pitch walk. (Paging Mr Francona, paging Mr Francona.) And of course, pitch #106? John Olerud, YOU are Pedro’s Daddy! 3-0 Bombers.
Maybe, just maybe, there's something to this pitch count stuff.
Por ejemplo: you read a lot about how wasteful bunting is. Well the only way to truly measure how wasteful it is would be if the exact same set of variables (players, ballparks, etc...) were allowed to play both with and without bunting. Obviously this is impossible. If you take the bunt out of the equation it changes pitch selection, it allows the infielders to position theselves differently, it changes everything.
Another group of people who receive no shortage of scorn are people who believe in the utility of pitch counts. A ven diagram of the two groups would show a massive overlap. People like Dusty Baker, Bob Feller and Whitey Ford snarl with disgust at pitch counts. Of course Dusty has a rich history of pitchers on the DL, Bob Feller thinks Muhammed Ali is a traitor and Whitey Ford is quite possibly the most unpleasant man alive.
The number that you hear all the time in reference to El Diva is 105. That is the pitch count at which it has been determined that Petey starts to irrevocably implode. Now it’s not a binary switch, but it is a number to bear in mind as the game progresses.
On September 24th when El Diva took the hill in the 8th with a one-run lead and Matsui at the plate, a tsunami of déjà vu rolled across the Nation. We as a people had fallen through a wormhole 11 months back in time. Remember when Vader blew up Alderon and Obi Wan just knew, he heard the scream of millions suffering beyond belief at once? It was like that. You had to ask yourself, “Did Francona even watch the fucking playoffs last year?” (It turns out he didn’t, he said so the following day in the paper.) As day follows night, Matsui went yard on pitch number 101. Pitch 107 got roped to right for a double by Bernie. 115 was singled to center by Sierra, putting the Yankees ahead, 5-4.
Wednesday night Petey had thrown 91 pitches heading into the 6th. On pitch #97 Bernie flied out. #102 sent Posada to first on a five-pitch walk. (Paging Mr Francona, paging Mr Francona.) And of course, pitch #106? John Olerud, YOU are Pedro’s Daddy! 3-0 Bombers.
Maybe, just maybe, there's something to this pitch count stuff.
1 Comments:
NTA,
will you feel better if i tell you that our manager is even worse than yours? yes it IS possible
will you feel better if i tell you that our bullpen sucks worse than yours?
will you feel better if i tell you that our fielders (except carlos) are looking like manny?
will you feel better if i tell you that our hitters aren't hitting with RISP?
will you fell better if i tell you what's the point of having runners get on base when they just run into someone's glove?
no???
well, misery loves company
lisa
p.s. GO DWK!!!!
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